Economic Impact of Potential War with Iran
A military conflict with Iran is projected to drive oil prices to $130 per barrel and double the Consumer Price Index inflation to 5%. This scenario creates stagflation, where rising energy costs force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates despite a sluggish economy. Such a policy shift would likely trigger a recession and undermine Donald Trump's economic recovery plans.
iran· oil prices· consumer price index· federal reserve· stagflation
00:00 If we go to war with Iran, oil goes to $130 a barrel, just that. Core CPI, consumer price index inflation probably doubles, Alex, to about 5%, doubles. The main policy initiative from the Federal Reserve to slow down inflation is to raise interest rates. If you want to stimulate the economy, you lower interest rates. You don't need a stimulated economy generally if inflation is high, that means it's like cooking, right? But this is a different kind of inflation. This inflation is created from oil prices going up because of a war in the midst of a sluggish economy because Trump hasn't had time to grow it yet. This is stagflation. The policy initiative raised rates that will cause a recession.
00:53 When you have as much debt as we have, Trump's recovery plan won't work. It'll be dead in its tracks and he's gonna get the blame for it, right? But this recession, if you don't have enough money coming in from tax revenues, what is the next thing that you do? You print money. See, this inflationary spiral I think gets worse where the war with Iran, oil prices go up, they raise interest rates, puts us into a recession. The only way to pay for the deficits is to print more money. My word, Alex, this is like the worst of all possible scenarios.
01:32 Right, and so it's almost like all the globalist, the international, the IMF, the G7 nations, the international bankers, all of them are almost in cahoots, it feels like, against Trump to make his policies not succeed. And-. There's no doubt, and so let's stop here and elaborate. You always like to be conservative and say it looks like no, it's 100%. This is something I haven't, I've said it a lot but I've not made it clear. The reason I'm so mad at Trump about the Iran thing, I still love everything he's doing, is because all the economists I look at and the facts, it's not even debated, bare minimum this war will increase fuel prices massively. That will hurt recovery. We are buying it in cheaper dollars now.
02:26 It will push everybody towards bricks even faster just like the Ukraine war did that was so stupid But the globalists actually want that and it does so many other things that as you said Goes against Trump's recovery plan. That is everything and so people saying hey, the moolahs are bad. They could get nukes Come on, let's get them. I'm not fans of them. I don't like them attacking Israel, but I also don't like Israel behind the scenes destabilizing things, Netanyahu very unpopular trying to stay in power. How they just turned Syria over to Al Qaeda. And so when you know all the other pieces, there's a lot of other ones that would take hours to go into folks. And this is just the low end of problems.
